Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Numerical Feasibility Study for Treated Wastewater Recharge as a Tool to Impede Saltwater Intrusion in the Coastal Aquifer of Gaza – Palestine

The ongoing depletion of the coastal aquifer in the Gaza strip due to groundwater overexploitation has led to the process of seawater intrusion, which is continually becoming a serious problem in Gaza, as the seawater has further invaded into many sections along the coastal shoreline. As a first step to get a hold on the problem, the artificial neural network (ANN)-model has been applied as a new approach and an attractive tool to study and predict groundwater levels without applying physically based hydrologic parameters, and also for the purpose to improve the understanding of complex groundwater systems and which is able to show the effects of hydrologic, meteorological and anthropogenic impacts on the groundwater conditions. Prediction of the future behaviour of the seawater intrusion process in the Gaza aquifer is thus of crucial importance to safeguard the already scarce groundwater resources in the region. In this study the coupled three-dimensional groundwater flow and density-dependent solute transport model SEAWAT, as implemented in Visual MODFLOW, is applied to the Gaza coastal aquifer system to simulate the location and the dynamics of the saltwater–freshwater interface in the aquifer in the time period 2000-2010. A very good agreement between simulated and observed TDS salinities with a correlation coefficient of 0.902 and 0.883 for both steady-state and transient calibration is obtained. After successful calibration of the solute transport model, simulation of future management scenarios for the Gaza aquifer have been carried out, in order to get a more comprehensive view of the effects of the artificial recharge planned in the Gaza strip for some time on forestall, or even to remedy, the presently existing adverse aquifer conditions, namely, low groundwater heads and high salinity by the end of the target simulation period, year 2040. To that avail, numerous management scenarios schemes are examined to maintain the ground water system and to control the salinity distributions within the target period 2011-2040. In the first, pessimistic scenario, it is assumed that pumping from the aquifer continues to increase in the near future to meet the rising water demand, and that there is not further recharge to the aquifer than what is provided by natural precipitation. The second, optimistic scenario assumes that treated surficial wastewater can be used as a source of additional artificial recharge to the aquifer which, in principle, should not only lead to an increased sustainable yield of the latter, but could, in the best of all cases, revert even some of the adverse present-day conditions in the aquifer, i.e., seawater intrusion. This scenario has been done with three different cases which differ by the locations and the extensions of the injection-fields for the treated wastewater. The results obtained with the first (do-nothing) scenario indicate that there will be ongoing negative impacts on the aquifer, such as a higher propensity for strong seawater intrusion into the Gaza aquifer. This scenario illustrates that, compared with 2010 situation of the baseline model, at the end of simulation period, year 2040, the amount of saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer will be increased by about 35 %, whereas the salinity will be increased by 34 %. In contrast, all three cases of the second (artificial recharge) scenario group can partly revert the present seawater intrusion. From the water budget point of view, compared with the first (do nothing) scenario, for year 2040, the water added to the aquifer by artificial recharge will reduces the amount of water entering the aquifer by seawater intrusion by 81, 77and 72 %, for the three recharge cases, respectively. Meanwhile, the salinity in the Gaza aquifer will be decreased by 15, 32 and 26% for the three cases, respectively.

Moisture-dependent physical properties of locust bean (Parkia biglobosa) seeds

Seed moisture content is significant in the handling and processing of seeds. This work therefore determined the physical properties of Locust bean seeds as functions of seed moisture content in the moisture range of 5.9 – 28.2% dry basis. Mohsenin, Stepanoff and ASAE standard methods were used in determining the properties. Increases in seed dimensions vitz length = 10.2±1.0 – 11.3±0.9 mm; width = 8.5±0.8 – 9.1±0.6 mm; surface area = 191.2±24.6 – 208.3±26.3 mm2 ; geometric mean diameter = 7.78±0.49 – 8.12±0.03 and arithmetic mean diameter = 8.06±0.56 – 8.34±0.49 mm were recorded. Seed thickness = 5.49±0.43 – 5.26±0.62 mm; sphericity = 0.75±0.04 – 0.71±0.03; true density = 1251.96±55.5 - 1222±62.16 kgm-3 and porosity = 48.4±2.14 – 41.9±3.78 decreased. Static coefficient of friction increased on plywood (0.5±0.02 – 0.6±0.01), glass (0.4±0.05 – 0.5±0.01) and decreased on aluminium (0.5±0.02 – 0.5±0.04). A data of the physical properties of Locust bean; Parkia biglobosa was developed. This is useful for the design and development of equipment necessary for its handling and processing.